brad2002tj's poker life

August is turning out ok, having a good run the last few weeks and had a good Sunday.

I recruited many new lagtard team members, and they are already putting up good results. We will have over 10 members by the end of the week.

I have not been updating much, mainly because there is not anything good to report. I continue to more or less tread water and make only small gains despite good volume. I have made good money at SNG this year but am more or less bleeding money at MTT’s. My roll has taken a hit recently and I will need to focus on SNG more to replenish it. All I can do it continue to work hard and get better.

Here is a graph of 2010 year to date:

In other news, team lagtard is doing well and after 2 months the team of 3 is collectively up about $3k. One will be taking a shot at the $12’s soon and hopefully the others are not too far behind.

This weekend I selected a team of 3 players for me to train in 180 man sit and goes and stake into the games, starting at $2/180s and hopefully moving up as their skill and roll allows. I expect all 3 to have good results by the end of the year. We have our first group training session on Wednesday. I will update on their progress as we go.

I had a deep run in the turbo takedown Sunday, ended up shoving A8s into Ak blind vs blind to bust 24th out of over 18k people. $3k from 3kfpp ain’t bad, and I can’t complain too much because April has been a really good month.

I don’t want to jinx it, but I’ve been running pretty well lately. I got 3rd in the $27 turbo mtt and won the $8 turbo mtt and have been generally crushing SNG for the last few weeks.

I’m off to Vegas for the weekend, and plan to go to New Orleans for WSOP Circuit around May 8.

To the tune of Limp Bizkit’s Nookie:

Check
1….1..2
I came into this world as a reject
Look into these eyes
Then you’ll see the size of my roll
Dwellin on the past
Its burnin up my brain
Everyone that grinds has to learn from the pain
Hey, I think about the day
A fish ran away with my pay
Losing to morons that can’t play
Stars lets every flush draw hit obvy
And i’m just a sucker with a cookie basket worth of fpp
Hey, like a chump, hey–7x
Should i be feelin bad (no)
Should i be fellin good (no)
Its kinda sad
I’m the laughing stock of two plus two
And you would think that i would be movin on
But i’m a sucka like i said
F’d up in the head, not
And maybe the RNG made a mistake
And i should give Stars a break
My roll’s busted, either way
Hey, what the hell you want me to say
I won’t lie
That I can’t deny
{chorus}
I did it all for the fpp, come on
the fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your(yea)-3x
I did it all for the fpp, come on
The fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your (yea)-3x
Why did it take so long
Why did i wait so long, huh
To figure it out
But I did it
And I’m the only one
Underneath the sun who never gets there
I can’t believe that I could be decieved
(but you were)flopped the stone cold nuts to be runnered, see
Stars has a hidden agenda
They put my tender heart in a blender
And still I surrendered
Hey,like a chump, hey–7x
{chorus}
I did it all for the fpp, come on
The fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your(yea)-3x
I did it all for the fpp, come on
The fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your (yea)-3x
I’m only human
So your friends give you their advice
They’ll tell you, to just keep grinding
Its easier said than done
I appreciate it, I do, but
Just leave me alone, leave me alone
Just leave me alone
Nothings gunna change
You can hold anyway
I’m just gunna stay here and always run the same
Ain’t nothing gunna change
‘Cause you can hold anyway
And I’m just gunna stay here and always run the same
{chorus}
I did it all for the fpp, come on
The fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your(yea)-3x
I did it all for the fpp, come on
The fpp, come on
So you can take your cookies and stick it up your (yea)-3x

OOTM Pushbot Chart

ITM Pushbot Chart:

JCM4’s Explanation:

If you try the charts and find them useful, it would be great if you could forward $5 to my pokerstars account: jcm4ccc

The PushBot Charts advocate very tight play when it comes to pushing with less than 10M. For instance, the charts suggest you should fold 88 when you are UTG and have more than 2% of the chips in play. The tight play is based on the following, all of which are based on my analysis of data that I collected systematically in low buy-in ($12) tournaments:

Your opponent’s calling range is much looser when he is in the SB or BB.
Your opponent’s calling range is much looser when you are in the CO, Button, or SB.
Your opponent will call you 100% of the time when he is holding certain premium hands.
For other good but not premium hands, your opponent will call you some percentage of the time and fold the other times. The better the hand that your opponent holds, the more likely he is to call you.
Occasionally, your opponent will call you with a crap hand.

None of this should be surprising, but generally these facts are not taken into account when calculating hand ranges, calling ranges, etc. These charts take these facts into account. The end result is that the charts advocate a tight pushing range. So tight, in fact, that I’m sure many will call me an idiot or a fish or a retard or whatever. But don’t hate me. It’s just math.

The one thing the charts don’t take into account is the cost of folding your hand when you are not in the blinds. There is a cost, but I don’t know how to calculate it. So use the charts as information, nothing more. If you follow the charts to the letter, especially when you are ITM, there is a good chance you will blind out. But still, I think it’s good to know what is profitable and what is not.

To demonstrate how these figures were arrived at, I will go through one calculation, using one of the more strange outcomes .. pushing JJ with 8 players to go, already ITM, with 2% of the chip pool. Based on the charts, a push with 5.1M is even money.

In a PS 180 man tournament, 2% of the chips equals 5400 chips. With an M of 5.1, this means that the blinds and antes are worth 1050 chips.

1. Establishing the calling ranges

Based on my analysis of data in low-limit tournaments, here is the calling range.

For your opponents who are not in the blinds:
100% JJ-AA; AQs-AKs; AKo
78% 77-TT; AQo
36% 55-66; A7s-AJs; ATo-AJo;
8% 22-44; A5s-A6s; KTs-KQs; QJs; A6o-A9o; KTo-KQo; QJo

This means that if an opponent not in the blinds has 77, for example, he will call you 78% of the time and fold 22% of the time. Multiplying these percentages out (taking into account that your two Js cannot appear in your opponents’ hands), each opponent not in the blinds will call you 7% of the time and fold 93% of the time.

For your opponents in the blinds:
100% 88-AA; A9s-AKs; AJo-AKo
36% 55-77; A2s-A8s; KQs; A9o-ATo; KQo
17% 22-44; KTs-KJs; A2o-A8o; KTo-KJo
6% K7s-K9s; Q9s-QJs; JTs-J8s; T9s-T8s; 98s; QJo-QTo; JTo-J9o; T8o-T9o; 98o

With JJ in your hand, based on these calling ranges, each opponent in the blinds will call you 11.8% of the time and fold 89.2% of the time.

2. Stealing the blinds

Given the folding ranges above, you will steal the blinds 51.5% of the time. So, 51.5% of the time, you will end up with 6450 chips.

3. Getting called by opponents not in the blinds.

Based on the calling ranges above, you will get called by an opponent not in the blinds around 35.4% of the time. Of the times that you are called, you will be called by the premium range above 42% of the time, the second range 30% of the time, the third range 19% of the time, and the fourth range 9% of the time.

Multiplying these figures out, you will win 57% of the time, and lose 43% of the time. Multiply this by the % of times you are called, and you will have 11800 chips (doubling up + 1M) 20.3% of the time, and 0 chips 15.1% of the time. So far, this is what we have:

51.5% 6450 chips
20.3% 11800 chips
15.1% 0 chips

4. Getting called in the blinds

Based on the calling ranges above, you will get called by an opponent in the blinds around 13.1%% of the time. Of the times that you are called, you will be called by the premium range above 59% of the time, the second range 21% of the time, the third range 15% of the time, and the fourth range 5% of the time.

Multiplying these figures out, you will win 61.5% of the time, and lose 38.5% of the time. Multiply this by the % of times you are called, and you will have 11000 chips (doubling up + 200 chips I threw in) 8.1% of the time, and 0 chips 5% of the time. So far, this is what we have:

51.5% 6450 chips (still 9 opponents)
20.3% 11800 chips (8 opponents)
8.1% 11000 chips (8 opponents)
20.1% 0 chips

This multiplies out to an average of 6600 chips. However, if you take out the ICM calculator and multiply it through, you’ll see that the average prize pool of the scenario above compared to 5400 chips and 9 opponents is almost identical.

In the last 2 days I shipped the $16 turbo on stars for $6k and a $36/180 man for $1.8k, finally breaking an enormous 3month, 5k game breakeven stretch. I hope to never encounter a stretch like that again.